Games Workshop says it just wrapped the biggest year in its history. In a trading update ahead of Monday's full annual report, the company behind Warhammer is guiding to core revenue of "not less than" £625 million for the year ended May 31st, up from £565 million the year before. That's a rise of nearly 11%, and it comes on top of a decade of numbers that mostly went one direction.
Profit before tax is pegged at "not less than" £265 million, a hair above last year's £262.8 million, and the first dividend of the new financial year got bumped to 90p a share. Little plastic soldiers remain very big business.
Then there's the line that made me sit up.
The £22 Million Question
Licensing revenue, the money other companies pay to put Warhammer into video games, shows, and merch, is expected to come in around £30 million. Last year it was £52.5 million. That's a drop of roughly 43%, and by GW's own trading commentary the reason is simple: nothing released this year came close to the size of Space Marine 2, the 2024 blockbuster that pushed licensing income to an all-time high.
That's a fair explanation, and it's also the worry. When a single hit game accounts for that kind of gap, the licensing line depends on how often lightning strikes. GW gets to keep the core business either way, but the licensing checks only get huge when a partner ships something special.
The pipeline is where the question of things to come gets real. Dawn of War IV arrives in September with two expansions planned for its first year, and the Amazon film and TV deal with Henry Cavill attached remains in development with no dates announced. If one of those lands the way Space Marine 2 did, this year's dip reads like a pause between paydays. If none of them do, that £30 million might be the new normal.
The core hobby, meanwhile, is doing the heavy lifting. New starter sets brought fresh blood into 40K, codex prices came DOWN by a third with the new softcover format, and the miniatures kept selling to the tune of a record year. Whatever happens with the licensing checks, the tabletop engine that actually pays the bills is humming.
That's the tension heading into Monday.
The full report lands July 28th, and that's where the real shape shows up: final numbers, margins, and any hints about what's next on the licensing slate. Keep in mind everything above is GW's own "not less than" guidance, so the finals can only surprise in one direction. We'll break the report down when it drops.
What are your thoughts? Is the licensing drop a one-year blip while GW waits for its next Space Marine 2, or the first sign the video game gold rush is cooling? For the tabletop players out there, does any of this reach your gaming table at all?
Let us know in the comments below!
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