It's no surprise that Grand Theft Auto 6 is this year's most anticipated game. Even before it was officially announced back in December 2023, fans of the blockbuster franchise from Rockstar Games had been looking forward to it. But just how big will it be?
One analyst predicts the game could sell 40 million copies in its first year alone. Research and consulting firm DFC Intelligence recently launched a report estimating that GTA 6 would generate $3.2 billion between physical and digital sales, along with online microtransactions during its first year of release. The firm estimates that sales could reach 100 million units by 2030.
Speaking to GameSpot, DFC Intelligence's David Cole explained that the long-term success of GTA 5 could actually help GTA 6 get off to a faster start.
Cole noted that GTA 5 actually saw its overall revenues increase in its seventh, eighth, and ninth years on the market, with annual revenue reaching more than $1 billion in the eighth and ninth years on the market.
First released in September 2013 for Xbox 360 and PlayStation 3, Grand Theft Auto 5 broke numerous video game sales records, including the highest revenue generated by an entertainment product in 24 hours and the fastest entertainment property to gross $1 billion. GTA 5 earned $800 million on its first day before eclipsing the $1 billion mark in just three days.
GTA 5 was brought to PlayStation 4 and Xbox One a year later, and to Windows PC in April 2015. It was also eventually brought to the PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X|S in March 2022.
It's currently the second-best-selling video game of all time with 205 million copies shipped. It has generated over $8.5 billion in worldwide revenue thanks.
Part of what kept GTA 5 popular for so long has been Grand Theft Auto Online, which will almost certainly carry over to GTA 6 when it launches. The online multiplayer spin-off mode is a huge moneymaker for Rockstar Games thanks to its constant updates and microtransactions.
"We think GTA 6 will do a better job generating revenue right out of the gate. So first-year sales are forecasted at a modest 40 million units with total unit sales going to 100 million by the end of year five," Cole told GameSpot. "Note that the game is forecasted to launch new versions as new consoles release and PC version comes. This timing is somewhat uncertain but is why there will be bump somewhere around years three or four."
Rockstar has yet to announce exactly when Grand Theft Auto 6 will be released but it currently has a 2025 launch window. Assuming there are no delays or setbacks, we can probably assume it will release later this year, closer to the holiday season.
As for Cole's note about Rockstar launching new versions of GTA 6 as new consoles release, it's worth pointing out that neither Sony nor Microsoft have announced successors to the current PS5 and Xbox Series X|S. However, there are reports about the PlayStation 6 starting to swirl, and there are rumors Microsoft's next Xbox could include a handheld component. Nintendo is also expected to launch its Nintendo Switch 2 console sometime this year, although we don't know if it will be powerful enough to run Grand Theft Auto 6.