With Grand Theft Auto VI less than a month away, an old estimate about its economic impact is making the rounds again. The claim is that the launch could cost the United States around $1 billion in lost productivity on its first day alone, as players skip work to explore Vice City. It is an eye-catching number, but it is worth looking at where it actually came from and what it does and does not say.
Where The $1 Billion Estimate Comes From
The figure traces back to a report by Spanish broadcaster Cadena SER, published more than a year ago (July 28th, 2025). In that piece, SER wrote that US employers were already preparing for the release and that the country was expected to lose roughly $1 billion on day one through absenteeism. The report presented that figure as a projection and did not include a breakdown of how it was calculated.
The same report included an interview with Jose García Montalvo, a professor of economics at Pompeu Fabra University in Barcelona. Montalvo did not offer a headcount or a dollar calculation in the quotes SER published. Instead, he talked about who is most likely to stay home and why games affect working hours more broadly.
He identified "young men between 18 and 30 years old" as the clearest group, along with the technology sector, because remote workers face less direct supervision. In his words, that makes it much easier to "slip away and try out the new game." These quotes are translated from Spanish.
Montalvo also pointed to longer-term research. According to SER, he said that since the mid to late 2000s, video games "can explain around half of the increase in young people's leisure time and up to 1.5 and 2% of the decline in hours worked." Those figures describe historical trends in leisure and labor over many years. They are not a forecast of how many people will miss work on GTA 6's launch day.
The 1.5 Million Worker Figure Has No Published Source
Much of the recent coverage pairs the $1 billion estimate with a claim that around 1.5 million Americans plan to take November 19th off, multiplied against an average yearly output of about $70,000 per worker. That number does not appear in the Cadena SER report or in Montalvo's quoted comments, and no survey or methodology behind it has been published. IBTimes UK, which has examined the claim, noted that the headcount should not be attributed to Montalvo as a finding from his interview.
In other words, the 1.5 million figure is an unsourced number that circulated online after the fact, seemingly to explain how a $1 billion loss might add up. It should be treated with plenty of skepticism.
There is another wrinkle. When SER published its report, GTA 6 was still dated for May 2026. Rockstar later delayed the game to November, so the original estimate was made with a different launch day in mind.
Gamers Taking Time Off Is Nothing New
None of this means launch day absences are imaginary. The SER report also claimed that during the opening weekend of GTA 5 in 2013, around 6% of people aged 18 to 35 in New York and Los Angeles missed work, though the piece did not cite where that number came from. Big releases have long inspired players to book vacation days, and GTA 6 is expected to be one of the largest entertainment launches ever.
It is also worth remembering that a booked day off is not the same as lost output. Many workers schedule leave in advance, finish tasks early or catch up the following week, which makes any single-day dollar figure hard to pin down.
What Rockstar And Take-Two Have Confirmed
The release date, at least, is locked in. Rockstar Games released the official launch trailer last week (October 15th), confirming that GTA 6 arrives on November 19th for PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X and Series S.
Parent company Take-Two Interactive is banking heavily on the release. In its fiscal first quarter results (August 7th), the publisher reiterated its outlook of $8.0 to $8.2 billion in net bookings for the fiscal year ending March 2027 and projected more than $1 billion in net cash from operating activities. CEO Strauss Zelnick said, "With these positive trends and excitement around the November 19th launch of Grand Theft Auto VI, we are reiterating our Fiscal 2027 Net Bookings outlook of $8.0 to $8.2 billion."
So while the productivity numbers remain speculative, the launch itself is expected to be very real money for Take-Two, whether or not players call in sick to enjoy it.
Are you planning to take November 19th off for GTA 6, or will you wait until the weekend?
Let us know your thoughts in the comments below.